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<DIV>Last evening I received the WWFMexico report on the number and sizes <BR>of
the monarch overwintering colonies in Mexcio. I wish to thank <BR>Eduardo Rendon
for providing this information. The report (in <BR>Spanish) can be found at:
<BR>http://www.wwf.org.mx/wwfmex/publicaciones.php?tipo=reps&p=bm.<BR><BR>The
news is not good. The total area occupied by monarchs at the <BR>overwintering
sites in December was 1.92 hectares. Only 7 colonies <BR>were found. The three
largest colonies El Capulin (Cerro Pelon) <BR>0.53ha, El Rosario 0.50ha, and
Cerro Prieto (Chincua) 0.47ha <BR>constitute 78% of the total area. The totals
for both hectares and <BR>numbers of colonies are at an all time low. Good
records of the <BR>numbers of colonies and area occupied go back to 1992 and
there is <BR>less complete data for most years going back to the late 1970s and
<BR>numbers this year appear to be lower than observed for any year since
<BR>the overwintering colonies became known to science in 1975. The <BR>lowest
previous total, 2.19 hectares, was reported in 2004. This <BR>decline continues
a trend that started in the late 1990s. In the <BR>decade of the 90s the mean
area occupied by monarch colonies was <BR>close to 9 hectares. The mean for the
last 10 years, through the 09 <BR>migration, is now below 5 hectares per year
and the three lowest <BR>monarch overwintering populations were reported in this
decade.<BR><BR>In a posting to the Monarch Watch Blog on the 20th of October
<BR>(http://monarchwatch.org/blog/2009/10/monarch-population-status-5/) I
<BR>summarized the conditions monarchs confronted during the breeding <BR>season
and predicted that: "the total hectares will be in the range <BR>of 2 to 3.5
when all colonies are measured in December." More <BR>recently, based on the
relative success of taggers this fall, I was <BR>anticipating that the total
hectares would be closer to 3 hectares. <BR>Unfortunately, the final number is
below my most pessimistic <BR>expectation.<BR><BR>As many of you know my
predictions are based on a combination of <BR>interpretations of the effects of
temperature on monarch populations, <BR>observations reported to us throughout
the breeding season and early <BR>in the migration and experience. Of these,
temperatures are the best <BR>predictor.<BR><BR>Without going into great detail
and wishing not to repeat the October <BR>report, here is a brief summary of the
reasons for the low <BR>overwintering numbers.<BR><BR>1.) High temperatures in
Texas in March and early April limited <BR>production of first generation
monarchs. It is these monarchs that <BR>recolonize the northern breeding range
and fewer monarchs moving <BR>north/northeast out of Texas from late April to
June impacts the rest <BR>of the breeding season.<BR>2.) Conditions were less
than ideal for the first generation monarchs <BR>as they moved north in May and
early June.<BR>3.) Upon arrival in Minnesota monarchs encountered drought
conditions <BR>that limited reproductive success of first generation in that
area.<BR>4.) As the summer progressed, cool and cool, rainy conditions
<BR>prevailed in many areas, limiting reproduction and slowing <BR>development
of larvae.<BR>5.) Colder than normal condition prevailed for most of the western
<BR>two thirds of the northern breeding area from mid June into early
<BR>September.<BR><BR>In many respects the conditions during the monarch
breeding season in <BR>2009 were a repeat of the conditions seen in 2004 that
contributed to <BR>the previous low overwintering population number of 2.19
hectares.<BR><BR>In spite of the recent cold snap that reached into Mexico,
there have <BR>been no indications of weather related mortality at the
overwintering <BR>sites. Let's hope that normal winter conditions prevail during
the <BR>next 7-8 weeks. Even if there should be some mortality, our
<BR>experience with the disaster of 2002, in which an estimated 80% of <BR>the
population died as the result of a January storm, showed that, if <BR>at least 1
hectare of monarchs survives to move north and, IF they <BR>encounter normal
conditions as they move north through Mexico and in <BR>Texas, the population
can recover.<BR><BR>I have a pdf of the WWFMx report and will be glad to send it
to those <BR>who are interested.<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>-- <BR>Monarch
Watch<BR>monarch@ku.edu<BR>http://www.MonarchWatch.org/<BR>Dplex-L: send
message "info Dplex-L" to Listproc@ku.edu<BR>1-888-TAGGING (toll-free!) -or-
1-785-864 4441<BR>University of Kansas<BR>1200 Sunnyside Avenue<BR>Lawrence, KS
66045-7534<BR>Create, Conserve and Protect Monarch Habitats</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT lang=0 face="Gill Sans MT" size=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" PTSIZE="10"><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>Laurie Davies Adams<BR>Executive
Director<BR><B>Pollinator Partnership </B><BR>423 Washington Street, 5th
floor<BR>San Francisco, CA
94111<BR>415-362-1137<BR>LDA@pollinator.org</FONT><FONT lang=0 face=Arial color=#000000 size=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" PTSIZE="10"><BR><BR></FONT><FONT lang=0 face="Gill Sans MT" color=#0000ff size=4 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" PTSIZE="14"><B><A href="http://www.pollinator.org/">www.pollinator.org</A></B></FONT><FONT lang=0 face="Gill Sans MT" color=#000000 size=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" PTSIZE="10"></B><BR><A href="http://www.nappc.org/">www.nappc.org</A><BR><BR></FONT><FONT lang=0 face="Gill Sans MT" color=#000000 size=3 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" PTSIZE="12"><B><I>National Pollinator Week is June 21-27, 2010. <BR>Beecome
involved at <A href="http://www.pollinator.org/">www.pollinator.org</A></I></FONT></B></DIV></FONT></BODY></HTML>