<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif;font-size:small"><i>This article from the Monarch Watch blog is relevant to the conditions for Western monarch populations in 2021.</i></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif;font-size:small"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif;font-size:small">The Monarch Crash of 2013</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif;font-size:small">Chip Taylor, <span class="" id=":1xw.1" tabindex="-1" style="">Ph</span>.D.</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif;font-size:small"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">What contributed to the
monarch population crash in 2013?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">The text below was written at
the time the <span class="" id=":1xw.2" tabindex="-1" style="">FWS</span> was evaluating evidence of all aspects of the monarch
population prior to determining whether the monarch should be listed as a
threatened species. As you may remember, in December 2020, monarchs were listed
as threatened but precluded based on the priorities given to other species
which were more clearly threatened and endangered. A final decision on the
status of monarchs is scheduled for 2024. The below was neither published nor
posted to the Blog. It should have been since the analysis is relevant to what
happened between 2016-2018 in California that led to the collapse of the
Western monarch population. I’ve reorganized and added to the original text to
provide more background and clarity. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Introduction</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">There are numerous ways to
associate trends in the growth or declines in populations with physical
(weather related) and biological factors. Ideally, there are real numbers to
work with but that is seldom the case, and lacking hard counts, we often have
to link outcomes tentatively with causative factors until we see the patterns
appear over and over again in generation to generation or year to year records.
That’s the case with monarchs. Numbers are generally lacking with cause-and-effect
relationships first appearing as speculation or inference. Those insights, if
confirmed again and again, can morph into hypotheses, and in the best cases,
correlations, which, in themselves, do not guarantee causation. The next step
is prediction. If the outcomes can be predicted based on the observed
relationships, we can be reasonably sure we are on the right track. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">My approach to trying to
understand the trends in monarch numbers has been to use what is called a stage
specific model. I break the annual cycle into 6 stages based on the dominant
activity within a stage. Each stage is treated as a discrete period that
demographically represents either an increase or decrease in numbers depending
on conditions during the period but not excluding the condition of the
butterflies entering a stage. For example, drought starved monarchs could
arrive at the overwintering sites with shorter wings, smaller mass and reduced
fat bodies that could affect both mortality during the stage and realized
fecundity of the survivors. Further, each stage sets the initial numbers for
the next stage, and, in effect, provides limits on what can happen in the next
stage irrespective of the conditions during that stage. In other words, the
outcome of the next stage depends both on the starting numbers and fitness
(mass, fat body, wing area) of the starting population and the conditions
during that stage. Good starting numbers may not result in an expected increase
if conditions are poor, and conversely, poor starting numbers can effectively
cap the outcome even under the most favorable conditions. It also appears to be
extremely difficult for a population to recover from a poor start in a breeding
season that only involves 3-4 generations.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">This approach evolved from
attempts to understand the variation in year-to-year measurements of the size
of the overwintering monarch population in Mexico. My quest started with a
simple question: what was the explanation for the decline from 18.19 hectares
in the winter of 1996-1997 to the following winter of 1997-1998 with a
population of 5.77 hectares? The answer appears to be an April frost in Texas
that killed large numbers monarch eggs and larvae. That quest led to an
analysis of the factors possibly associated with population growth for all
years from 1994 forward as well as searches through the weather records back to
1895. The point I’m making is that, although this text <span class="" id=":1xw.3" tabindex="-1" style="">focusses</span> of what
happened from 2011-2015, the data base I’ve used to interpret these records is
extensive. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Methods </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">The metrics used in this
analysis are large scale, or reflect measures of large-scale, that is multi-regional,
events. Regional weather and local and regional impacts due to predators,
parasites and pesticides all have a role in determining population numbers but
are difficult to measure and hard to integrate into a stage specific model.
With this in mind, I have selected only a few measures that appear to be
correlated with outcomes in a way that give them predictive value. Among these
measures are first sightings of adult monarchs in the spring, March temperatures
in Texas, May temperatures north of 40N, summer temperatures and <span class="" id=":1xw.4" tabindex="-1" style="">NDVI</span>, a
measure of greenness of the vegetation on a landscape (Table1). Success or
failure of population growth is measured by the increase or decrease in the
areas occupied by monarchs at the overwintering sites from one year to the
next. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Results</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">The population declined from
2011 to 2012 and again from 2012 to 2013 and increased in both 2014 and 2015
(Table 1). The declines occurred as the result of high March temperatures in TX
(2011, 2012), summer temperatures >1.9F above the long-term means (2011,
2012), drought conditions (low <span class="" id=":1xw.5" tabindex="-1" style="">NDVI</span>) in the South Region (2011, 2012) and a low
number of first sightings (2013). The increases in 2014 (0.67 to 1.13) and 2015
(1.13 to 4.02) followed favorable mean temperatures for population growth in
March, May and June-August. The <span class="" id=":1xw.6" tabindex="-1" style="">NDVI</span> index, which can be taken as a proxy for
the availability of nectar sources, was high for each year as well</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">The associations of high mean
temperatures and drought conditions with population decreases is seen
throughout the record from 1994 through 2019. Similarly, population growth from
one year to the next is associated with mean temperatures that are close to or
below the long-term average for March in TX. The longer record shows that
populations increase when summer means are up to 1.9F above long-term means but
decrease when mean temperatures substantially exceed +1.9F. Populations also
decline when mean temperatures are >-1.5F below average (2004, 2009). </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">The temperatures for
September and October represent the conditions for the first and second halves
of the fall migration (Table 1). Although there is no clear relationship
between these means and the size of the overwintering population in these data,
this may be changing. The extreme high temperatures for September 2019 delayed
the migration by up to two weeks. Those temperatures and a drought in Texas and
northern Mexico resulted in an unusually low recovery rate (N=392) for tagged
monarchs suggesting that attrition due to these factors limited migratory
success. Similarly, above average September temperatures in the Northeast in
recent years are associated with lower recovery rates of tagged butterflies
from this region. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.52" tabindex="-1" style="">Discussion</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">The low number of monarchs
reported at the overwintering sites in Mexico in the winter of 2013-2014 appears
to have been the result of a series of negative weather events that began in
the summer of 2011. Excessive temperatures and droughts in 2011 and 2012
followed by low initial colonizing numbers in the spring of 2013 account for
the decline. More favorable conditions for population growth allowed the
population to increase in 2014 and 2015. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Temperatures </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Summer temperatures can have
a significant impact on the size of the fall migratory population. A review of
all the records suggests that population growth is enabled when temperatures
range from a little over -1F to almost +1.9F. Lower temperatures of >-1.5F,
as in the summers of 2004 and 2009, both due to a southward dip in the jet
stream, resulted population declines. These reductions may have been due a
reduction in egg development which is temperature dependent, egg laying rate or
simply a shorter growing season or all three. Average temperatures in the Upper
Midwest greater than +1.9F were also associated with declines. Such
temperatures are likely to negatively affect realized fecundity by reducing the
reproductive activity and longevity of adults. In addition, such temperatures
affect resources available to adult monarchs by shortening flowering intervals,
and hastening senescence of host plants. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.122" tabindex="-1" style="">Droughts</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:rgb(32,33,34)">A metric known as normalized
difference vegetation index</span><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:rgb(32,33,34);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"> (</span><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:rgb(32,33,34)"><span class="" id=":1xw.127" tabindex="-1" style="">NDVI</span></span><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:rgb(32,33,34);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">), a measure of
greenness derived from satellite imagery, is frequently used to measure the
severity of droughts. Low values indicate severe drought conditions and the
<span class="" id=":1xw.138" tabindex="-1" style="">NDVI</span> values for Texas were low in both 2011 and 2012. These low values are
associated with low recoveries of tagged monarchs and lower than expected
overwintering numbers. Drought conditions also occurred in some parts of the
Upper Midwest in 2012. Those conditions may have further reduced the migration
and the size and robustness of the butterflies originating from that region.
Reports of “small” monarchs occur with some frequency during droughts in the
Midwest. </span><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">First sightings</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">While first sightings posted
to Journey North tend to be urban and suburban centric and can be limited by
the number of people willing to report sightings, they appear to tell us two
things that are relevant here. First, low numbers, well below the recent
average numbers of sightings, as in 2013, tell us that population growth can be
limited by the number of returning monarchs. This record also tells us that
there is no obvious association between the size of the overwintering
population and the number of first sightings. For example, while the
overwintering population of 2012 (1.19 hectares) led to 322 first sightings in
2013, the lower population of 2013 (0.67 hectares) accounted for 521 first
sightings in 2014. Similarly, the larger population of 2014 (1.13 hectares)
produced only 547 first sightings. Sorting out the human factor from the
dynamics that produce the numbers of monarchs moving north in March and later
in May will be a challenge. In the meantime, the low number returning in 2013
gives rise to several questions about the fitness of the cohort of monarchs
that arrived at the overwintering sites in the fall of 2012. We know that most
monarchs originate from the Upper Midwest and that the region experienced a
semi-drought that summer along with the highest temperatures in the record for
that region from 1994 to present. The tagging record for 2012 indicated that
numbers tagged that fall were among the lowest we’ve recorded for the Upper
Midwest. Therefore, it’s possible that the last generation monarchs were less
fit due to lower fat reserves, or size, to survive the migration, the winter
period and the migration northward the following spring. High levels of
mortality during the migration northward from the colony sites to Texas could
also account for the low number of first sightings in the spring of 2013. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Additional <span class="" id=":1xw.261" tabindex="-1" style="">considerations</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">There are a few more things
to say about 2012 and 2013 that are not apparent from the above data. The first
sightings data show that the return migration for 2012 was the earliest in the
record with large numbers of overwintered monarchs advancing beyond 40N in late
April and the first 10 days of May. In contrast, due to late arrivals and cool
conditions in May of 2013, the movement of first-generation monarchs beyond 40N
was predominantly at the end of May. These two back-to-back years demonstrated
that overwintering and first-generation monarchs can advance both too early and
too late into the summer breeding area for optimal population development. If
too early, females lay eggs at more northerly latitudes with cooler, sometimes
freezing, temperatures that delay age to first reproduction. Such delays have
the effect of reducing the reproductive success of the returning cohort that
overwintered in Mexico. Late recolonization also negatively affects population
growth in that it shortens the breeding season. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">This analysis suggests that it
is extremely difficult, maybe impossible, for a population to recover from a
poor start in a 6.5-month breeding season that involves 3, and more rarely 4,
generations. Of course, this depends on the definition of a poor start, and in
this case, I’m thinking of the poor starts in 2004, 2012, 2013. There may have
been carry-over effects from the droughts of 2002 and 2012 that had an impact
on the populations the following years. The population that developed in 2012,
following the drought of 2011 also declined, but that decline may have been due
as much to conditions in March and August as to the condition of the
butterflies surviving from the previous winter. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">This example shows that the
decline and recovery of a population can be explained IF measures can be
identified that have a broad geographic impact on a population at a particular
stage. Negative events can have a ripple effect from one stage to another and
can carry over from one year to the next. Further, a series of negative events
can cause a population to spiral downward rapidly. Is it possible that the
downward trends in the Western monarch population from 2016-2020 were the
result of a similar series of negative events? Yes, that’s possible.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black">The crash in the
population numbers in 2013, together with what appeared to be a long-term
decline that included other years with alarmingly low numbers (2009-2010 - 1.92
and 2012-2013 - 1.19) led to the petition filed in August 2014 to declare the
monarch a threatened species. This petition was preceded by an invitation from
the White House to a stake-holders meeting at the Eisenhower Office Building in
April 2014. Attendees represented a broad array of organizations interested in
monarch and pollinator conservation. A bit later, on the 20th of June 2014,
President Obama issued a memorandum requesting that all Federal Agencies with
some control of landscapes become engaged with monarch and pollinator
conservation. Given the prospect that a small overwintering population would be
extremely vulnerable to catastrophic overwintering mortality that could reduce
the numbers to levels that would threaten the very existence of the monarch
migration, these responses were not unreasonable at the time. The US Geological
Survey, the lead research agency of US government, took the lead in convening
meetings to examine the monarch situation. These meetings were populated with
monarch biologists and appropriate expert personnel from federal agencies. A
number of publications resulted from these meetings, the most cited of which is
“The all hands-on-deck” paper (<span class="" id=":1xw.461" tabindex="-1" style="">Thogmartin</span>, <span class="" id=":1xw.462" tabindex="-1" style="">et</span> <span class="" id=":1xw.463" tabindex="-1" style="">al</span>, 2017). The analysis therein
indicates that an overwintering population of 6 hectares is required for
monarchs to be able to rebound from known adverse weather or other events. The
analysis also points out that to achieve a population of this size will require
the restoration of 1.8 billion milkweed stems. While there are many restoration
efforts under way, it’s not clear whether these efforts are sufficient to
offset the 2 million or more acres of potential monarch habitat that are
converted to croplands and lost to development each year.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black">The low
overwintering numbers of 2013-2014 led me to ask whether monarch numbers had
been this low or lower in the past. Yes, that is likely, but there is no data
on this subject. What we can do is look at past climates. Those records show
that monarchs have experienced far greater extremes in the past than anything
seen since 1994. We can only speculate about the impact of these events on
monarch numbers, but it seems likely monarchs declined to extremely low levels several
times in the last 125 years. And before that was the “little-ice-age”, a much
colder period with erratic shifts in climate from 1300 to 1850. While monarchs
clearly survived numerous extremes through the centuries, they now face new
threats posed by climate change such as severe winter storms, high temperatures
and droughts in all portions of the breeding season and even the migration.
Those impacts can already be seen in California.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Table 1. Temperature means,
first sightings and <span class="" id=":1xw.564" tabindex="-1" style="">NDVI</span> records for 2011-2015.</span></p>
<div align="center">
<table class="gmail-MsoTableGrid" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;border:none">
<tbody><tr>
<td width="240" style="width:179.75pt;border:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.565" tabindex="-1" style="">Year</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding:0in 5.4pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">2011</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding:0in 5.4pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">2012</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding:0in 5.4pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">2013</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding:0in 5.4pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">2014</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding:0in 5.4pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">2015</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height:29.75pt">
<td width="240" style="width:179.75pt;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Overwinter
hectares/prev season</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">4.02</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">2.<span class="" id=":1xw.569" tabindex="-1" style="">89</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">1.19</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">0.67</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">1.13</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height:29.75pt">
<td width="240" style="width:179.75pt;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">First sightings
1 March–30 April</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.572" tabindex="-1" style="">241</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.573" tabindex="-1" style="">255</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.574" tabindex="-1" style="">129</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.575" tabindex="-1" style="">201</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.576" tabindex="-1" style="">203</span></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height:29.75pt">
<td width="240" style="width:179.75pt;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">March
mean temp TX</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+5.4</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+6.<span class="" id=":1xw.578" tabindex="-1" style="">8</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+0.<span class="" id=":1xw.579" tabindex="-1" style="">9</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">-1.6</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">-0.<span class="" id=":1xw.580" tabindex="-1" style="">2</span></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height:29.75pt">
<td width="240" style="width:179.75pt;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">May
mean temp 40N <span class="" id=":1xw.582" tabindex="-1" style="">UM</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">-0.<span class="" id=":1xw.583" tabindex="-1" style="">2</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+4.<span class="" id=":1xw.584" tabindex="-1" style="">8</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+0.<span class="" id=":1xw.585" tabindex="-1" style="">2</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+0.5</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+1.3</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height:29.75pt">
<td width="240" style="width:179.75pt;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">First
sightings >40 <span class="" id=":1xw.588" tabindex="-1" style="">N</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">1
May–9 <span class="" id=":1xw.590" tabindex="-1" style="">Jun</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.591" tabindex="-1" style="">362</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.592" tabindex="-1" style="">408</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.593" tabindex="-1" style="">193</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.594" tabindex="-1" style="">320</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.595" tabindex="-1" style="">344</span></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height:29.75pt">
<td width="240" style="width:179.75pt;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">June–August
mean <span class="" id=":1xw.597" tabindex="-1" style="">temp</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Upper
<span class="" id=":1xw.599" tabindex="-1" style="">Midwest</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+2.0</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+3.0</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+0.3</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">-0.5</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">-0.3</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height:29.75pt">
<td width="240" style="width:179.75pt;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">September
mean <span class="" id=":1xw.602" tabindex="-1" style="">temp</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Upper
<span class="" id=":1xw.604" tabindex="-1" style="">Midwest</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">-0.5</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">-0.1</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+3.3</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+0.5</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+6.4</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height:29.75pt">
<td width="240" style="width:179.75pt;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">October
mean <span class="" id=":1xw.606" tabindex="-1" style="">temp</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">South
Region</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">0.0</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">-1.3</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+0.1</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+2.<span class="" id=":1xw.608" tabindex="-1" style="">9</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">+2.6</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height:29.75pt">
<td width="240" style="width:179.75pt;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Total
first sightings</span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.611" tabindex="-1" style="">603</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.612" tabindex="-1" style="">663</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.613" tabindex="-1" style="">322</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.614" tabindex="-1" style="">521</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.615" tabindex="-1" style="">547</span></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height:29.75pt">
<td width="240" style="width:179.75pt;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;border-top:none;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.616" tabindex="-1" style="">NDVI</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">0.<span class="" id=":1xw.617" tabindex="-1" style="">462</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">0.<span class="" id=":1xw.618" tabindex="-1" style="">494</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">0.<span class="" id=":1xw.619" tabindex="-1" style="">536</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">0.<span class="" id=":1xw.620" tabindex="-1" style="">542</span></span></p>
</td>
<td width="77" style="width:57.55pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;padding:0in 5.4pt;height:29.75pt">
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">0.<span class="" id=":1xw.621" tabindex="-1" style="">533</span></span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span class="" id=":1xw.622" tabindex="-1" style="">References</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black;border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Wayne E <span class="" id=":1xw.625" tabindex="-1" style="">Thogmartin</span></span></span><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black">,<span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Laura <span class="" id=":1xw.627" tabindex="-1" style="">López</span>-<span class="" id=":1xw.628" tabindex="-1" style="">Hoffman</span></span></span>,<span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Jason <span class="" id=":1xw.630" tabindex="-1" style="">Rohweder</span></span></span>,<span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Jay
<span class="" id=":1xw.632" tabindex="-1" style="">Diffendorfer</span></span></span>,<span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Ryan <span class="" id=":1xw.634" tabindex="-1" style="">Drum</span></span></span>,<span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Darius <span class="" id=":1xw.636" tabindex="-1" style="">Semmens</span></span></span>,<span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Scott <span class="" id=":1xw.638" tabindex="-1" style="">Black</span></span></span>,<span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Iris <span class="" id=":1xw.640" tabindex="-1" style="">Caldwell</span></span></span>,<span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"><span class="" id=":1xw.641" tabindex="-1" style="">Donita</span> <span class="" id=":1xw.642" tabindex="-1" style="">Cotter</span></span></span>, <span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Pauline <span class="" id=":1xw.644" tabindex="-1" style="">Drobney</span></span></span><span class="gmail-reveal-content"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">,</span></span><span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Laura L <span class="" id=":1xw.647" tabindex="-1" style="">Jackson</span></span></span><span class="gmail-reveal-content"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">,</span></span><span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Michael <span class="" id=":1xw.649" tabindex="-1" style="">Gale</span></span></span><span class="gmail-reveal-content"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">,</span></span><span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Doug <span class="" id=":1xw.651" tabindex="-1" style="">Helmers</span></span></span><span class="gmail-reveal-content"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">,</span></span><span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Steve <span class="" id=":1xw.653" tabindex="-1" style="">Hilburger</span></span></span><span class="gmail-reveal-content"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">, </span></span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Elizabeth <span class="" id=":1xw.655" tabindex="-1" style="">Howard</span></span></span><span class="gmail-reveal-content"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">,</span></span><span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Karen <span class="" id=":1xw.657" tabindex="-1" style="">Oberhauser</span></span></span><span class="gmail-reveal-content"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">,</span></span><span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">John <span class="" id=":1xw.659" tabindex="-1" style="">Pleasants</span></span></span><span class="gmail-reveal-content"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">,</span></span><span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Brice <span class="" id=":1xw.661" tabindex="-1" style="">Semmens</span></span></span><span class="gmail-reveal-content"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">,</span></span><span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"><span class="" id=":1xw.662" tabindex="-1" style="">Orley</span> Taylor</span></span><span class="gmail-reveal-content"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">,</span></span><span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Patrick <span class="" id=":1xw.664" tabindex="-1" style="">Ward</span></span></span><span class="gmail-reveal-content"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">,</span></span><span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Jake F <span class="" id=":1xw.667" tabindex="-1" style="">Weltzin</span></span></span><span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></span><span class="gmail-reveal-content"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">and</span></span><span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"><span class="" id=":1xw.668" tabindex="-1" style="">Ruscena</span> <span class="" id=":1xw.669" tabindex="-1" style="">Wiederholt</span></span></span></span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><span style="color:black;border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">.</span></span><span class="gmail-nowrap"><sup><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black;border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></sup></span><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black">(2017). </span><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black">Restoring monarch
butterfly habitat in the Midwestern US: 'all hands on deck'. </span><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326" style="color:blue"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black;border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Environmental Research <span class="" id=":1xw.681" tabindex="-1" style="">Letters</span></span></a><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black">,<span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"> </span></span><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/volume/1748-9326/12" style="color:blue"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black;border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Volume <span class="" id=":1xw.683" tabindex="-1" style="">12</span></span></a><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black">,<span class="gmail-apple-converted-space"> </span></span><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/issue/1748-9326/12/7" style="color:blue"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black;border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Number <span class="" id=":1xw.685" tabindex="-1" style="">7</span></span></a><span class="gmail-wd-jnl-art-breadcrumb-issue"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black;border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></span><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black"><span class="" id=":1xw.686" tabindex="-1" style="">074005</span></span><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"> </p></div><div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><font size="2" style="font-size:small"><div style="display:inline"><span class="" id=":1xw.687" tabindex="-1" style=""></span></div>Laurie Davies <span class="" id=":1xw.690" tabindex="-1" style="">Adams</span></font><div style="font-size:small"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:transparent">Pollinator <span class="" id=":1xw.692" tabindex="-1" style="">Partnership</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:transparent">475 <span class="" id=":1xw.694" tabindex="-1" style="">Sansome</span> Street, 17th <span class="" id=":1xw.697" tabindex="-1" style="">Floor</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:transparent">San Francisco, CA <span class="" id=":1xw.701" tabindex="-1" style="">94111</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><font size="2"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:transparent">e: </span><font color="#0b5394"><a href="mailto:lda@pollinator.org" style="color:rgb(17,85,204);text-decoration:none" target="_blank"><span style="font-family:Arial;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:transparent"><span class="" id=":1xw.703" tabindex="-1" style="">lda</span>@pollinator.<span class="" id=":1xw.705" tabindex="-1" style="">org</span></span></a></font></font></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><font size="2"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:transparent">w: </span><span style="text-decoration:underline;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:transparent"><a href="http://www.pollinator.org/" style="color:rgb(17,85,204);text-decoration:none" target="_blank">www.pollinator.<span class="" id=":1xw.709" tabindex="-1" style="">org</span></a></span></font></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:transparent">p: 415.260.<span class="" id=":1xw.713" tabindex="-1" style="">8092</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><a href="http://www.facebook.com/ThePollinatorPartnership" style="color:rgb(17,85,204);text-decoration:none" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:14.6667px;font-family:Arial;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:transparent"><img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/qFvFCWMd7ZB9TM_LTVdhWsdArNsUDMW59Vi8rJ7gNA7RNb-K0KMroCYBtke2Nf3mZeKPh264BhJoFbuEYxeDTfQmTCyzm7-ATcBBjGE0AAE3qKIMwouoSpETJTbAz_HciMqBu3o" width="40px;" height="40px;" alt="facebook.jpg" style="border:none"></span></a><a href="http://twitter.com/Pollinator" style="color:rgb(17,85,204);text-decoration:none" target="_blank"><span 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style="color:rgb(17,85,204);text-decoration:none" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:14.6667px;font-family:Arial;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:transparent"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/cVPc0lFK0KKdsuSZEfOJCuWAqfijIdHXSs5_VL3kk6cKodRs9hPbtTZUfLjNZ2bMSSW4YRimaAGzDSwNT9xLJEAlpdcptobYJbd3hZJ-RFCfoJeRoa3CjCgJF72LwjvcTuLUlsk" width="40px;" height="40px;" style="border:none"></span></a></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><a href="http://pollinator.org/index.html" style="color:rgb(17,85,204);text-decoration:none" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:13.3333px;font-family:Arial;text-decoration:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:transparent"><img src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/zZyBlTpFQjYniFpnMQmc-RrBI2Rpe9U5uKaWfoKoMYek1ugA57_o8RKohSjfJo2JvAfqHKzkZ_Yo_Sqviy3IItch11tROejbCPxaLZ6GmWOfTP9NRiqw41r0FXUzkioCYDi40tA" width="117px;" height="52px;" style="border:none"></span></a><span style="text-decoration:underline;font-size:13.3333px;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:transparent"><a href="http://pollinator.org//million-pollinator-garden-challenge.htm" style="color:rgb(17,85,204);text-decoration:none" target="_blank"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/xvJTiXlf4_2FrLoy25N8mA58EWUhf0bq_7y0O_Mpgry4fDA03xNJOoSBdIKNJlElTT7wBuaZlah8bDxdn3I-PqkLByXUHbAwatAt3NTGd32GxNkPlq7pSsUjHQ0XsTNGajnAGV8" width="60px;" height="60px;" style="border:none"></a></span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>