<div dir="ltr"><div><span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-863c32db-7fff-5fe1-5081-d95bf413bc2b"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">The annual </span><a href="https://westernmonarchcount.org/" style="text-decoration-line:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline">Western Monarch Count</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline"> (WMC), led by the Xerces Society and count co-founder Mia Monroe, is underway with the mid-season count beginning tomorrow, Saturday, November 16. The inaugural early-season count at western monarch </span><a href="https://westernmonarchcount.org/map-of-overwintering-sites/" style="text-decoration-line:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline">overwintering sites</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline"> concluded earlier this month (Oct. 19 - Nov. 3), and suggests that this year’s overwintering western monarch population is very low.               </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">While these are still initial tallies, approximately 7,000 monarchs have been observed across the entire range. Numbers should continue to rise as the season progresses, but early monitoring foretells a story similar to 2018 and 2019 when less than 30,000 monarchs were recorded in the West. For comparison, over 230,000 monarchs were observed during last year’s mid-season count. This year, we expect a significantly reduced mid-season count that will likely fall somewhere between the 2018/19 tallies and the record low of less than 2,000 monarchs in 2020. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">Overwintering site results</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">Santa Cruz County is home to two significant monarch overwintering sites this year: Natural Bridges State Park had the largest individual early-season count with 2,152 monarchs reported on October 29; Lighthouse Field State Park had the second largest count with 1,078 monarchs reported on November 1. So far, these are the only sites that we know of hosting more than 1,000 monarchs this season.</span><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,255);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline"> </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">Pismo State Beach monarch butterfly grove reported 354 monarchs on October 30, rising to 406 monarchs as of November 12. Pacific Grove’s monarch sanctuary had 18 monarchs reported on November 1, declining to 9 monarchs as of November 7</span><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,255);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">. </span><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">A sensitive site owned by The Nature Conservancy, is at 19 monarchs – a stark difference from the past several years when it hosted tens of thousands of monarchs during the overwintering season.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">Data for past seasons are available online at </span><a href="http://westernmonarchcount.org/data/" style="text-decoration-line:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline">westernmonarchcount.org/data</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">, and it will be updated with 2024-25 data later this winter once data review processes are complete. </span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">Possible causes of this year’s decline</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">Why the sudden decrease from last year? Spring and early summer monarch numbers looked relatively normal across the western breeding range. However, that was followed by record-breaking heat and drought across the West from mid-summer through early fall. The number of “</span><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-style:italic;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">where are the monarchs?</span><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">” inquiries from the public and fellow researchers came pouring in. July was </span><a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-08-08/record-heat-in-july" style="text-decoration-line:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline">California’s hottest month ever</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline"> and the majority of the western breeding range remains in </span><a href="https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/" style="text-decoration-line:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline">some degree of drought</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">, conditions attributed in part to climate change. An </span><a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09102024/western-monarchs-record-breaking-heat-waves/" style="text-decoration-line:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline">October article</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline"> about monarchs and heat from Inside Climate News cited a </span><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe5585" style="text-decoration-line:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline">2021 study </span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">published in the journal Science which identified climate change, particularly warmer falls over several decades, as a major factor leading to declines of 250 butterfly species across the West.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">We know that monarch </span><a href="https://www.xerces.org/blog/bounciness-of-butterflies" style="text-decoration-line:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline">butterfly populations, like other insects, are naturally "bouncy"</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline"> in that they fluctuate from year to year in response to the temperature, rainfall, the availability of food, and other factors like predation and disease. However, the migratory western monarch population has undergone a sustained and significant decline – estimated at over 95% since the 1980s – far beyond any year-to-year fluctuations. While there are still yearly ups and downs, western monarch populations are now bouncing around in uncharted territory. </span></p><br><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">We witnessed migratory monarchs rebound from severely low overwintering numbers before, and a similar uptick in future years may be possible but is not guaranteed. Once again, we call upon all butterfly lovers, conservationists, land stewards, policy makers and educators to help us spread the word of western monarch declines and </span><a href="https://xerces.org/western-monarch-call-to-action" style="text-decoration-line:none"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline">encourage immediate action to aid this beloved butterfly and its habitat</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline">.</span></span></div><div><br></div><span class="gmail_signature_prefix">-- </span><br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><span><font color="#000000"><p dir="ltr" style="color:rgb(34,34,34);line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="color:rgb(28,28,28);font-family:"Source Sans 3",Arial;font-weight:700">Isis Howard </span><span style="color:rgb(28,28,28);font-family:"Source Sans 3"">(she/her)</span><span style="color:rgb(28,28,28);font-family:"Source Sans 3",Arial;font-weight:700"><br></span><span style="color:rgb(28,28,28);font-family:"Source Sans 3"">Conservation Biologist</span><span style="color:rgb(28,28,28);font-family:"Source Sans 3""><br></span><span style="color:rgb(28,28,28);font-family:"Source Sans 3"">The Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation</span><span style="color:rgb(28,28,28);font-family:"Source Sans 3""><br></span><span style="color:rgb(28,28,28);font-family:"Source Sans 3"">503.212.0546 | </span><a href="mailto:isis.howard@xerces.org" style="font-family:"Source Sans 3"" target="_blank">isis.howard@xerces.org</a><br></p><p dir="ltr" style="color:rgb(34,34,34);line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><a href="https://www.xerces.org/" style="outline:0px;font-family:"Source Sans 3"" target="_blank"><span style="color:rgb(0,112,121)">xerces.org</span></a><br></p></font></span></div></div></div>