[Pollinator] Bee's Global Losses at 80% due to Global Warming and Impact of Peak: Oil, GDP and CO2

[Elizabeth Dougherty]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1045.html

Bee's Global Losses at 80% due to Global Warming and Impact of Peak: Oil,
GDP and CO2

Recently, beekeepers have reported losses of up to 80% of their hives from
various locations around the globe. Over the past month, there have been
several different hypotheses proposed for the sudden disappearance of bees
recently coined ³Colony Collapse Disorder² (CCD):

€  Transmissions from cell phones might be killing bees
http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/wildlife/article2449968.ece . Cell
phones and their networks have been around for 20 years, so a sudden decline
due to phones is highly improbable.

€  Mites infecting bees around the globe: http://www.news.c o
m.au/story/0,23599,21660605-421,00.html .

€  Interestingly, research into the mites have shown they are carriers of
potential viruses that infect bees:
http://www.latimes.com/news/la-sci-bees26apr26,0,7437491.story?track=mostvie
wed-storylevel . The article goes into detail about how fungi, Nosema
cerenae have been infecting hives. This fungi is one of many bee pathogens,
including mites that infect bees with RNA viruses called iflavaviruses.
Protection of hives from the fungi can be used to protect hives as well as
pesticides to wipe out mites.

Nosema cerenae used to only affect Asian bees, but with importation of bee
colonies around the globe, this spore-forming fungi now resides in many
countries. Addition of fungicides to reduce the impact of fungus on beehives
will only cause a stronger, resistant strain to emerge, making it even more
deadly (Okay, here is a joke: a mushroom was not having much luck with the
ladies and his friends could not figure out why; they all thought he was
such a fungi). This type of fungicide abuse is similar to what is occurring
in hospitals. The over excessive administration of antibiotics for cuts and
in soaps etc. has lead to drug-resistant bacterial strains that are deadly
to immune-compromised people (organ transplant patients on immunosuppressive
drugs, cancer patients, AIDS victims, elderly etc.), particularly bacteria
with the genus Pseudmononas .

The above different points suggest that there are numerous pathogens that
can affect bees, many affected by climate temperature. The past few years
have seen the Northern Hemisphere and other places around the globe
experience higher temperatures, which could improve growth characteristics
for certain pests. As an example, British Columbia , Canada has had a pine
beetle infestation that threatens to destroy between 70-80% of their forests
by 2013. In the past, naturally occurring forest fires would burn sections
of forest that would eliminate the beetle or other forest pests. Rotations
of multiple fires over many years would significantly reduce the population
of the pine beetle or other pests so only small regions of forest were
affected at any given time. Since forest fires have been fought tooth and
nail over the past 60 years, a greater percentage of the current forest is
at risk from being wiped out. Man has created a monoculture in BC in a
sense, by having large sections of forest not being allowed to burn.

Much warmer temperatures in BC over the past decade along with forest fire
prevention have created the ³setup² for a significant ecological collapse in
BC over the next 10 years (less water retention in trees translates to less
water storage in soil will cause flash floods, increased erosion etc. etc.).
Things will eventually stabilize, but the bottom line is ³Do not mess with
the mechanics of Mother Nature or at some point it will come back and bite
you in the ass² .

The bees will continue to live, but at a reduced level until they reach a
balance with nature. Saskatchewan has had a ban on importing bees for 20
years, which has resulted in preventing the introduction of foreign pests
e.g. mites, viruses, fungi. The following article is very informative and
discusses why CCD is not as big a problem in Canada :
http://www.cbc.ca/news/bac k ground/insects/index.html

The following article is one of the best I was able to dig up on CCD, which
basically describes the condition as a summation of stresses coming to a
head at once: http://www.agbio.ca/Docs/Colony_collapse_bees.pdf . Another
thread I wish to address is from the one and only, Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colony_collapse_disorder . I do not think that
genetically modified crops are having any impact on bee populations. Tests
are performed prior to new crops introduced into the environment to ensure
key insects are not impacted: http://www.cor n
pest.ca/lib/news.cfm?id=32#bottom . Other articles similar to this may be
found at www.cornpest.ca

The importance of bees can not be understated but an urban legend may have
been created about a supposed Albert Einstein quote ³If the bee disappeared
off the surface of the globe then man would only have four years left of
life². I will refer you to the following thread that questions the validity
Einstein even made such a quote:
http://www.snopes.com/quotes/einstein/bees.asp . It is always important to
check and double check references and never assume what you hear is the
gospel. Do your own research to arrive at your own conclusions in any facet
of life and many bumps along the way will be avoided.

It is unlikely that ALL the bees are going to die off the face of the earth.
The big problem for bee declines appears to be present in commercial
beehives. Honeybees are not native to North America , instead they were
introduced from other countries. Honey bees are selected for many traits,
one of them being a ³degree² of aggressiveness towards innocent creatures
stumbling within a certain vicinity of their hive. The following thread
highlights the accidental introduction of the African honeybee into the
Brazilian environment and it's tracking to the north over the past 4
decades: http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/ M G113 . The globalization of economies
has also resulted in the introduction of new pests into ecosystems. As such,
a millennium will likely be required at a minimum to establish a new
equilibrium within the balance of ecosystems; far too long to even consider
in the day to day driven economics. Man is going to have to quickly learn to
go organic and use lesser amounts of herbicides and pesticides, not only due
to the potential disruption in pollinated food crops due to declines in bee
populations, but peak oil.

The first thing that pops into the head of a person first stumbling upon the
term ³Peak Oil² is ³Oh great, now it is going to cost 3x the current amount
to fill my gas tankŠŠŠ#166;@#$^$#$% great². What many people fail to realize
is how integrated oil is in our day to day lives. Oil is used to make
plastics, herbicides, pesticides, antibacterial agents (benzoic acid) etc.
The following thread is an interactive cartoon that shows what household
items contain a link to oil:
http://www.priweb.org/ed/pgws/uses/uses_home.html . The number of items is
nearly inexhaustible due to its presence in most items. When peak oil does
become more of a reality, it will significantly impact the amount of
fertilizer, herbicide and pesticide application onto fields, which will
result in increasingly lower global crop output going forward.

Transportation of beehives across counties will become limited to a narrow
range, so I think apiarists are going to become as common as the baker,
tailor, and butcher over the course of the coming years. Operations will be
local, but the apiarist will likely be one hat of many that an individual
may wear e.g. the future apiarist likely run a farm or simply be a family
planting their own crops.
Peak Oil, the Other Unsuspected Agent of Doom
I wanted to tie peak oil into the prior portion of the article to show how
the effects are further reaching and deeper than most would initially
suspect by a surface viewing of a headline. The remainder of the article
will discuss two aspects of peak oil I think will have significant
implications for global society: peak global GDP and peak CO 2 .
Peak Global GDP

Since the dawn of time, economic growth of any nation has involved
exploitation of resources of another kingdom once they deplete their own.
Easter Island is renowned for having numerous stone statues, but most are
not familiar with the ancient economics that drove that population to death
(refer to the following thread for full reference:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_island ). A former tribe living on
Easter Island made an economy for building and moving statutes. Carts were
made to move the statues as well as maintain a fleet of fishing vessels and
homes. The rapid explosion of their population resulted in complete
deforestation of the island, which translated into no new fishing boats to
be built or maintenance of current ones i.e. no fish, no food with death to
follow. The sudden disappearance of the trees collapsed the statue industry
and all was abandoned; the civilization as they knew it ceased to exist.

Fast forward to the 15 th -17 th century Europe when England , France and
Spain had nearly depleted their forests. The European conquests of the new
Americas during this time frame saw the accumulation of gold the European
Central Banks have been selling onto the market as of late. It is
interesting to note that the wealth of England , Spain , France and other
notable countries was initially founded upon exploitation of resources from
South America . The gold came at no cost, aside from filling ships full of
prisoners and the equivalent of Hells Angels persona to go to rape and
pillage the new found land, all in the name of ³Her Majesty².

The USA was initially settled by those of Asian descent some 12,000-24,000
years ago (based upon current research) only to essentially be expropriated
by European conquerors in the 1600's. The growth seen in the USA or any
other prior culture for that matter has been, and always will be, based upon
an apparent inexhaustible energy source until it became apparently
exhausted. Failure to have a constant supply or an ever-increasing amount of
energy will result in an inevitable implosion in society (see above). For
this reason, the primary driver for countries seeking new land in the past
was to secure new resource pools for continued economic growth.

Currently, it appears global oil production peaked at 86 million barrels/day
and is now in the process of declining (currently producing between 85-85.5
million barrels/day). The growth in China and India has been around 8% and
10% YOY, respectively for the past 10 years. Their consumption of global
energy has risen from some 5% 10 years ago to 11% today. If growth in China
and India continue at their blistering pace, they must consume oil that
would otherwise be consumed by other nations. Peak oil will likely result in
a 3-6% decline year over year in production so in 2017, global oil
production will be between 62.7 ­ 50.9 million barrels/day, respectively.

There have been some extremely famous people (Jim Rogers) state the current
commodity boom will run for 20-30 years, with the globe currently in year 7.
As stated in the recent paragraphs, expansion of other countries i.e.
consumption of resources requires a constant or growing supply of energy.
Once peak oil occurs, it will result in the inevitable decline of global GDP
for a significant period of time until a new equilibrium is reached. Oil is
used for transporting goods, so a sudden lack of oil or high oil prices are
going to significantly impact the consumption profile of global consumers.
High prices could literally cap consumption that could cause demand
destruction.

Countries will try and get around higher commodity prices by inflating their
currencies, but eventually a collapse of debt and hyperinflation will cause
a severe deflation (as per Easter Island ). Commodity prices are likely to
remain high for the next 20-30 years, but that does not necessarily
translate into a 25-year bull market in related stocks.

The Mexican government received around 40% of the money in their coffers
from the Cantarell Oil Field. With Cantarell now declining around 20% YOY,
this is going to significantly affect the ability of the Mexican government
to function at current output. The socialist candidate in the 2006
elections, Obrador lost by a marginal 1.35% (give or take). Over the coming
years, expect pressure on the government to eventually take a similar stance
to Hugo Chavez in Venezuela post 2012 Mexican elections (I expect a
socialist landslide at this point in time). Nearly every gold or silver
company in Canada or the US has some form of operations based in Mexico . An
event such as this would be more than enough to cap the bull market in
gold/silver stocks. Gold and silver bullion likely would rise even higher in
price due to the typical scenario of socialists mining known deposits
without diverting any cash to pay for drilling to increasing reserves or
maintain infrastructure.

Many countries are going to nationalize their assets by 2014, making
ownership of resource stocks improbable. Fear of nationalization will drive
down stock prices, just look at any stock that had exclusive presence in
Venezuela or Bolivia . For the threat of nationalization post 2012, we
recommend conversion of money in Mexican gold/silver stocks into gold/silver
bullion around mid 2010 to no later than early 2011 (it will be the late
investors that end up holding the bag in gold and silver stocks). The above
scenario may take later to occur than presented, but it is better to lower
the degree of portfolio risk than take any risk at all.

Peak CO 2
Peak oil also will bring many different peaks e.g. peak technology, peak
GDP, peak industrialization etc. One unsuspecting item is the likelihood of
peak CO 2 (at least the amount from human production). The levels of CO 2
have been increasing slowly since the advent of the industrial revolution in
Europe in the late 18 th century.

Currently, there is a 10-15 year window mankind has to establish a flat
lining of CO 2 production to cause a reversal of the warming trend 50-100
years from now. The expected 3-6% YOY decline in oil production will result
in a similar decline in CO 2 production. Many suspect that coal consumption
will be increased in order to meet rising energy demand, thereby negating
the percentage decline expected to be seen from declining oil production.
Oil is used for transportation and I suspect that many will be surprised at
how quickly the declines in extracting coal and other forms of mining on a
daily basis will be seen once supplies bottleneck. As such I think although
global warming is an important issue, it is relatively safe to assume that
CO 2 production from humankind will decline 3-6% YOY for the next 20-50
years.

Currently, the global icecaps are melting, which causes one to ponder a
well-known Newton 's law. ³For every reaction, there is an equal and
opposite reaction. There are large blocks of ice in Antarctica and other
places around the globe exerting a tremendous downward pressure on the
Earth's crust. Melting the ice away essentially lifts the pressure from the
vice, allowing the opposite pressure to be exerted in an upward direction.
This could translate into strong plate tectonic movement over the coming
centuries, which translate into more volcanic activity. Since one major
volcanic event can spew more CO 2 into the atmosphere than man produces in a
given year, Mother Nature will be the likely culprit for any increases in
the coming decades.
Summary

  The purpose of this article was to collate all the current information
about CCD seen with bee populations and possible causes. This phenomenon
should be the central focus of governments for research, because a measly
3-5 million USD/year is small compared to allowing a $15 billion/year crop
industry to operate. If the trend continues, expect food prices to go off
the charts.

Peak oil ties into the bee issues via herbicide, pesticide, and fertilizer
production. Lower levels of these components to crops will result in lower
yields. Fertilizing fields with organic means (cow, pig and chicken manure,
composting etc.) will be important for attempting to maintain yields.

With Peak Oil will come Peak CO 2 . The Earth will return to a homeostatic
balance over the course of the next 300-500 years and hopefully humankind is
still around to witness this event. The release of carbon trapped beneath
the surface of the Earth (oil, bitumen and coal) has increased the carbon
pool of the planet, thereby carbon based life for hundreds of millions of
years. One of the few benefits of humankind has had in recycling carbon back
to the planet for carbon-based life.

There is a lot to learn about the web of nature and it is important to walk
around such webs rather than right through, because the outcome could be
rather sticky.

Last week I released an update on the US Dollar Index, which will be the
last of technical analysis reports I put on the web for the next 4-5 months.
The next article I put out in 3-4 weeks will be controversial to say the
leastŠhint: it has to do with the global government system.

By David Petch

http://www.treasurechests.info




On 5/17/07 4:43 PM, "Matthew Shepherd (Xerces Society)"
<mdshepherd at xerces.org> wrote:

> Hi everyone,
>  
> If anyone is interested in hearing about native bees as crop pollinators, here
> is online resource that you may like to view. It is only available until late
> July.
>  
> Mace Vaughan of the Xerces Society gave a lecture on Native Bee Conservation
> 101 to the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) last week via the
> internet. The presentation provides an overview of the importance, life
> history, and conservation of crop-pollinating native bees. Also included is
> information on the great things the NRCS is doing for pollinator conservation
> in the U.S.   
> 
> If you do view the talk or forward it on to others, you should be aware that
> this is a recording of the live event. The first few minutes contain lots of
> beeps and some random comments as participants came on-line for the meeting
> (also some directions about how the system worked, which are not relevant to
> anyone viewing this recording). The presentation is about an hour, with an
> additional fifteen minutes of questions at the end. The information for
> logging on to the net replay follow below.
> 
> Best wishes,
> Matthew
>  
> PS. You will need to use Internet Explorer, as it says below. I tried it on
> Mozilla Firefox, and failed. When I resorted to Explorer, it worked.
> 
> ________________________________________________________
> NET CONFERENCING PARTICIPANT ACCESS INFORMATION:
> 
> To access the replay, you need to use the Internet Explorer browser.
> 
> CONFERENCE NUMBER: PH6963755
> AUDIENCE PASSCODE: 503273
> 
> To access the Net replays of this call, go to:
> https://www.mymeetings.com/nc/join.php?i=PH6963755&p=503273&t=r
> <https://www.mymeetings.com/nc/join.php?i=PH6963755&amp;p=503273&amp;t=r>
> 
> The replay will be available for 60 days, ending JUL-09-2007
> 
> ______________________________________________________
> The Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation
> The Xerces Society is an international nonprofit organization that
> protects the diversity of life through invertebrate conservation. To
> join the Society, make a contribution, or read about our work,
> please visit www.xerces.org <http://www.xerces.org/> .
>  
> Matthew Shepherd
> Director, Pollinator Conservation Program
> 4828 SE Hawthorne Boulevard, Portland, OR 97215, USA
> Tel: 503-232 6639 Cell: 503-807 1577 Fax: 503-233 6794
> Email: mdshepherd at xerces.org <mailto:mdshepherd at xerces.org>
> ______________________________________________________
>  
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> Pollinator mailing list
> Pollinator at lists.sonic.net
> http://lists.sonic.net/mailman/listinfo/pollinator



====================
Elizabeth Dougherty, Ph.D.
Flex Your Power
2183 Union Street 
San Francisco, CA  94123
Phone:  (415) 771-7571 x310
www.flexyourpower.org


-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://lists.sonic.net/pipermail/pollinator/attachments/20070521/d4472f43/attachment-0001.html